Preparing for Frankenstorm

Weather forecasters have given the east coast of the United States the ominous prediction of a "Frankenstorm" early next week -- an anticipated massive collision between the warm & wet tropical air mass known as hurricane Sandy and an arctic blast from the north.  Rain?  Snow?  Damaging winds?  All of the above?  It depends upon which model you believe, although most tend to be converging on an unpleasant combination of the three that may extend as far inland as Ohio.

Regardless of which weather model you trust, what seems obvious to me is that I'd better get prepared.  But what does that mean?  How do you prepare for an emergency?  The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has an entire website called Ready devoted to the topic, where you can learn how to build a Basic Disaster Supplies Kit, create a Family Emergency Plan, and Graduate from Readiness U!  The National Weather Service also has an entire section of their website devoted to Weather Safety.

In my situation, I can expect a power outage.  I may get stuck at home for a few days.  So I need to check our stores of drinking water, easy to prepare food, and essentials like medicine and toilet paper.  I can't plan to do any laundry past Sunday, so I'd better get to that now.  I should also gas up the car, load up on groceries (although perhaps not too many perishables), and get cash from the bank.  Flashlights, candles, and warm blankets should all be placed within easy reach.  And maybe I should head over to the library for something to read, just in case.

In any event, stay warm, dry, and safe this Halloween.  And keep an eye out for Frankenstorm!

Prepare for disaster

Photo credit: NOAA Photo Library
As my son is running around the house, taping “no” signs on all of our water faucets due to a water line break and subsequent mandatory boil order, I thought today might be a good day to talk about disaster preparedness.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has put together some pages to help you enjoy yourself as you Create an Emergency Supply Kit. After you make a Just-in-Case Family Plan and Know the Facts about disaster preparedness, then you can take a quiz to earn your "Readiness U Graduation Certificate".

If you’ve gone through a disaster and need to talk about what happened, one place to share your story is the Disaster Connection pages of FEMA for Kids. You can also read about Herman P.I.C. And The Hunt For A Disaster-Proof Shell. Poor Herman! The hermit crab survives a hurricane, a flood, an earthquake, and a fire before he finally finds the right (and safe) shell.

I wonder if Herman knows how to boil water ...

Drought for thought

Photo credit: Jon Sullivan
When I was in graduate school, we spent some time discussing natural disasters and their impacts on humanity. I was surprised to learn that drought was considered to be a significant natural disaster. In the United States, yearly drought-related costs are higher (on average) than flood and hurricane-incurred costs combined. (source: Drought for Kids: Comparison of Droughts, Hurricanes and Floods by the National Drought Mitigation Center of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln)

What is drought? Simply put, a drought occurs when there is a substantial lack of rainfall in a given area, enough to negatively impact people, plants, and animals.

The definition of drought, however, is unique to a given location. What would be considered a drought in the wetlands of southern Florida, for example, would be considered an abundance of rainfall in the United States’ desert southwest.

There are a couple of factors that make coping with drought challenging. For one, by the time that you realize you are in drought, it’s already begun. Pinpointing when a drought first starts is nearly impossible, although groups like the United States Geological Survey do an admirable job of searching for signs of trouble. (Among other things, the USGS monitors the flow of water in streams and rivers. Low flow signals a possible drought-related problem.)

Once you realize that you are in a drought, no one can say how long it will last. Rainfall models can only tell you so much. For city planners and others who regulate water flow, it can be difficult to decide when and how to moderate water intake. Imposing water restrictions, ironically, can make a drought situation worse if panic ensues and people begin to hoard water. UNL’s National Drought Mitigation Center describes the challenge of managing drought as "The Hydro-Illogical Cycle".

In the United States, the U.S. Drought Monitor keeps track of drought conditions. One place to check on world-wide drought situations is NASA’s Earth Observatory Natural Hazards: Crops & Drought.

Keep good records, even when bad things happen

I've just spent the day wading through piles of paperwork, trying to compile our tax records, and I was struck by the disorganization of my filing system. It occurred to me that accurate records are important when conducting experiments, too, even when things don't go the way that you originally planned. One of my favorite scientific papers that I read during my graduate school days recounted a sampling effort on an ice floe that was aborted when the equipment was lost at sea. I liked it because the authors were just so honest. I pictured them standing there on a sheet of ice not knowing what to do next, bewildered and amused.

Remember that everybody make mistakes and scientists are no exception. Want proof? Pick up I've Been Gone Far Too Long: Field Study Fiascoes and Expedition Disasters, edited by Monique Borgerhoff Mulder and Wendy Logsdon, to remind yourself that even on your worst days, someone else has been there too.